Monday Trades

MON [look to roll forward LVS&SHLD&UUP to JAN]

IN
KR – Started position. Good intraday move. Good setup at support.

OUT
VIX (1/3) – Closed position before expiration.
SPY (1/2) – Closed position before expiration.
DO (ALL) – Closed position before expiration.
STX (1/2) – Closed position before expiration.

Portfolio

High Probability Setups – Week of 11/29

High Probability Setups We Continue to Watch
SHLD – [chart]
RYL – [chart]
LLL – [chart]
PBR – [chart]
DE – [chart]

High Probability Setups We Have Entered
DO – Looking for a pop on multiple indicator setup. [chart] [trade1][trade2][trade3]
CME – Rising channel. Entered on support and cheap call premium. [chart] [trade1][trade2] [entry logic]
S – Support touched 3 times over 6 months. Entered on TL support. [chart] [trade1][trade2]
WFT – Short. Rising channel. Shorted at resistance. [chart] [trade1]

Wednesday Trades

WED (11/24)

Considering taking profits into continued strength on Friday.

OUT
LLL – Took profit into strength.

Holding
IEF (short)
MAR (short)
CME
DO
LMT
MU
OI
S

Monday Trades

MON (11/22) [Have enough patience to let setups come to you]

IN
DO – Added to position. Cheap premium.

OUT
VIX – Rotated capital to DO.
MELI (1/2) – Scaling out of profits.

Watching
/ZN – Looking to yields and indicators to exit hedge.

Friday Trades

SDS (OUT) – Took profits on morning weakness.
DO (IN) – Added to position on pattern hold.

High Probability Setups – Week of 11/15

This is a weekly review of positions entered.  It is important to look back on the trades you’ve made especially if they are bad.  Here are 3 entries I am looking back on.

GOOD
DO [chart]
S [chart]

BAD
MAR

Thursday Trades

Thursday (11/18) [Don’t trade during lunch: 10-12PST]

Closing imbalances mixed.

Progress
CME – Holding [link to post].
OI (Long) – Holding.  Looking for breakout of falling wedge pattern.
MELI (Long) – Holding.  Breakout inevitable.
S (Long) – Holding.  Longer holding period on this stock.
MAR (Short) – Scaling out.  Cutting losses.
IEF (Neutral) – Holding. Looking to leg out of spread before a breakout in /ZN.

IN
SDS (IN) – Started position on market strength and follow through to upward TL.  Hedge against market weakness tomorrow.
VIX (IN) – 3 point drop today.  Picked up for value.  Also a hedge against market weakness tomorrow.
DO (IN) – Small scale into long position.

OUT
UUP (OUT) – Weakness in the $USD.
MAR (OUT 2/3) – Took losses on shorts into strength.  Don’t hold weakness.
OI (OUT 1/3) – Took profits at open on market gap up.

Watching
DO – Waiting for a slight pullback. Level of interest is 67.70.  Started small position.
OI – Mental stop set below 27 which indicates a pattern breakdown.

Wednesday Trades

WED (11/17) : [take profits into strength. don’t hold weakness]

3-year treasury yields open up 5 basis points higher than yesterday. All other treasury yields open lower.

CME showing great relative strength. While the market was in a consolidation it gained throughout the day.

Progress
IEF – Hedge had Delta (size) difference of less than 15%; nearly 1-1. The benefit of still holding the neutral hedge is that it reduces Theta (time decay) on the long PUTS to only 9% of their original value.  It’s held for free until there is a short term trend change downward in the 10-years.
S – Good volume on the DEC10 4 CALLS. Added to long.
OI – Good technical level. Added to long.
MAR – Added to short.
MELI – Looking good.
CME – Looking good.

Watching
DO – Possible entry soon (TA).
GLD, SLV – Lots of selling due to margin requirement increases. Look for oversold levels.
S, OI – Pattern breakdown would indicate an exit.

Out
SDS – Took profits on anticipated market strength.