Weekly Results – 2/4/11

Thursday Trades

IN
AMZN – APR 205 CALLS @ 1.05
AMZN – MAR 145 PUTS @ 0.65
CBOE – SEP 28 CALLS @ 0.80
PG – APR 62.5 CALLS @ 1.85
CBOEbutterfly MAR 22/24/26 @ 0.71
EXPE – APR 28 CALLS @ 0.50
FCXshort MAY 50 PUT @ 2.63
UUPshort SEP 24 CALLS @ 0.28

OUT (+2.667)
DBO – MAR 30 CALLS @ 0.60 (-0.15)
MCD (part) – MAR 75 CALLS @ 0.90 (+0.15)
ROVI (part) – MAR 65 CALLS @ 2.65 (+0.167)
ICE (covered short) – MAR 125 CALLS @ 2.15 (+0.28)
ICEvertical MAR 120/125 CALLS @ 1.82 (-0.086)

HEDGE
SDS – MAR 23 CALLS @ 0.59

OTHER
Reduced size of CME vertical and converted part to 300/310/320 butterfly then took part profit on 330 short leg of 320/330 vertical

CME (OUT part) – vertical MAR 320/330 CALLS @ 1.62 (-0.045)
1) CME (IN) – vertical MAR 300/310 CALLS @ 4.05
2) CME (IN) – short MAR 310 CALLS @ 6.20
3) CME (OUT covered part short) – MAR 330 CALLS @ 2.05 (+2.35)

orignal position: 320 + (320/330 vertical) = 2*+320 & -330
1: 300/310 vertical = +300 & -310
2: -310
3: +330

Two positions: 320/330 ratio vertical (net long) & 300/310/320 butterfly

SPX/ES Support Levels

/ES
CHART

SPX
CHART

These are important levels to watch. Anticipate further downside on Monday.

Good plays: long VIX, UUP, SDS, and short the /ES.
I picked up strong stocks at good values on Friday but this not something I would continue to do if the market weakness continues on Monday which is statistically likely.  There is a strong correlation between weak Fridays and weak Mondays.

Friday Trades

During large market drops money goes to “fear” assets such as gold, USD, and oil

IN
DBO – ratio long calendar strangle (1/5) to the long side
GLD – long strangle ( 1/1)
SDS – long. Inversely tracks the SPX. Holding until market strength returns.
UUP – when the public takes money out of the market they put it into what they consider safer assets such as cash
VIX – I anticipate the VIX (fear index that calculates volatility in the market) will continue to go up into next week
CME – I found a good bargain on one of my favorite stocks during the dip so I added to the position
ROVI – This is a stock I have been watching for a good entry for a long time and today it hit my buy level
FRX – This is another stock I have been waiting to enter

OUT
TUP – held very poor strength breaking below support levels so I decided to take the loss and move on
CME – Took profit on CME PUT protection I put on recently

Friday Trades

Friday

IN
INTC – Added.
FMX – FEB-11 60

OUT
S: +.05
MU: +.09

Scalp
SDS: -.07

Portfolio

5m SPX – 5 Day Trend Line Resistance (update 3)

The TL resistance turned into support on 11/18.  Today in the S&P we saw a breakdown below support levels lasting an hour.  We entered a few positions during this intraday period of market weakness and anticipate strength through the rest of the day.

Looking for a hedge in the SDS or another good spot to get in the VIX.

 

update 2
update 1
original post

Friday Trades

SDS (OUT) – Took profits on morning weakness.
DO (IN) – Added to position on pattern hold.

Thursday Trades

Thursday (11/18) [Don’t trade during lunch: 10-12PST]

Closing imbalances mixed.

Progress
CME – Holding [link to post].
OI (Long) – Holding.  Looking for breakout of falling wedge pattern.
MELI (Long) – Holding.  Breakout inevitable.
S (Long) – Holding.  Longer holding period on this stock.
MAR (Short) – Scaling out.  Cutting losses.
IEF (Neutral) – Holding. Looking to leg out of spread before a breakout in /ZN.

IN
SDS (IN) – Started position on market strength and follow through to upward TL.  Hedge against market weakness tomorrow.
VIX (IN) – 3 point drop today.  Picked up for value.  Also a hedge against market weakness tomorrow.
DO (IN) – Small scale into long position.

OUT
UUP (OUT) – Weakness in the $USD.
MAR (OUT 2/3) – Took losses on shorts into strength.  Don’t hold weakness.
OI (OUT 1/3) – Took profits at open on market gap up.

Watching
DO – Waiting for a slight pullback. Level of interest is 67.70.  Started small position.
OI – Mental stop set below 27 which indicates a pattern breakdown.

Wednesday Trades

WED (11/17) : [take profits into strength. don’t hold weakness]

3-year treasury yields open up 5 basis points higher than yesterday. All other treasury yields open lower.

CME showing great relative strength. While the market was in a consolidation it gained throughout the day.

Progress
IEF – Hedge had Delta (size) difference of less than 15%; nearly 1-1. The benefit of still holding the neutral hedge is that it reduces Theta (time decay) on the long PUTS to only 9% of their original value.  It’s held for free until there is a short term trend change downward in the 10-years.
S – Good volume on the DEC10 4 CALLS. Added to long.
OI – Good technical level. Added to long.
MAR – Added to short.
MELI – Looking good.
CME – Looking good.

Watching
DO – Possible entry soon (TA).
GLD, SLV – Lots of selling due to margin requirement increases. Look for oversold levels.
S, OI – Pattern breakdown would indicate an exit.

Out
SDS – Took profits on anticipated market strength.

Tuesday Trades

TUES (11/16)

IN
OI – Added to position on weakness.
CME – Started position (cheap call premium).
S – Started position (looks cheap on pullback).

HEDGED (premium plays)
IEF (1/2) – Sold premium against (1/2 ) long position. Yield in Treasurys dropped across the board today. Holding into tomorrow but I anticipate a continuation move up.
SDS – Intraday sniping.

OUT
PANL – Took loss. Too much weakness relative to overall market.
VIX – Took profit. Anticipate an overnight drop in volatility.
SDS (1/2) – Took profit. Holding other half as a hedge against new longs.
IEF (1/2) – Took profit. Weary of dropping yields today. Hedged against last half position.

Closing imbalances were to the sell side today but short covering created a rally into the close with more selling after the bell.