/DX Strength

The US dollar has found support. It’s showing strong up volume and continues to have a high inverse correlation with commodities.

Spread Adjustments 3/4 – 3/11

Spread Adjustments – 3/2/11

Wednesday Trades

Thursday Trades

Tuesday Trades

Weekly Results – 2/4/11

Thursday Trades

IN
AMZN – APR 205 CALLS @ 1.05
AMZN – MAR 145 PUTS @ 0.65
CBOE – SEP 28 CALLS @ 0.80
PG – APR 62.5 CALLS @ 1.85
CBOE – butterfly MAR 22/24/26 @ 0.71
EXPE – APR 28 CALLS @ 0.50
FCX – short MAY 50 PUT @ 2.63
UUP – short SEP 24 CALLS @ 0.28

OUT (+2.667)
DBO – MAR 30 CALLS @ 0.60 (-0.15)
MCD (part) – MAR 75 CALLS @ 0.90 (+0.15)
ROVI (part) – MAR 65 CALLS @ 2.65 (+0.167)
ICE (covered short) – MAR 125 CALLS @ 2.15 (+0.28)
ICE – vertical MAR 120/125 CALLS @ 1.82 (-0.086)

HEDGE
SDS – MAR 23 CALLS @ 0.59

OTHER
Reduced size of CME vertical and converted part to 300/310/320 butterfly then took part profit on 330 short leg of 320/330 vertical

CME (OUT part) – vertical MAR 320/330 CALLS @ 1.62 (-0.045)
1) CME (IN) – vertical MAR 300/310 CALLS @ 4.05
2) CME (IN) – short MAR 310 CALLS @ 6.20
3) CME (OUT covered part short) – MAR 330 CALLS @ 2.05 (+2.35)

orignal position: 320 + (320/330 vertical) = 2*+320 & -330
1: 300/310 vertical = +300 & -310
2: -310
3: +330

Two positions: 320/330 ratio vertical (net long) & 300/310/320 butterfly

Wednesday Trades

IN
AMZN – APR 205 CALLS @ 1.18
MCD – MAR 75 CALLS @ 0.75
PG – APR 62.5 CALLS @ 1.57
PG – APR 67.5 CALLS @ 0.17
OI – MAR 30 CALLS @ 0.95
VIX – APR4 18 CALLS @ 3.70
UUP – SEP 23 CALLS @ 0.51
ROVI –  Short MAR 70 CALLS @ 1.40
GLD (added) – MAR 129 PUTS @ 2.56

OUT
GLD – MAR 131 CALLS @ 2.423 (-0.180)
GLD (covered short) –  MAR 132 CALLS @ 2.00 (+0.129)
GLD – MAR 129 PUTS @ 2.46 (-0.215)
FRX (part) – MAR 33 CALLS @ 0.85 (+0.15)
ROVI (part) – MAR 65 CALLS @ 3.10 (+0.60)
ICE (part) – vertical MAR 120/125 CALLS @ 2.40 (+0.494)
UUP (rolled forward exp) – MAR 22 CALLS @ 0.41 (-0.235)
VIX (rolled forward exp) – FEB 20 CALLS @ 0.70 (-0.59)

SPX/ES Support Levels

/ES
CHART

SPX
CHART

These are important levels to watch. Anticipate further downside on Monday.

Good plays: long VIX, UUP, SDS, and short the /ES.
I picked up strong stocks at good values on Friday but this not something I would continue to do if the market weakness continues on Monday which is statistically likely.  There is a strong correlation between weak Fridays and weak Mondays.