/SI Mean Reversion

IDCC Levels

 

Long term chart

S&P Fear Regression

The regression area of 7/11/11 – 7/18/11 correlates to a spike in the VIX.

SPY Formation

SPY has found resistance of 134 nearly to the penny three times within the last two weeks and once again on 2/16.

I don’t use technical analysis often but the support/resistance levels, the spinning top reversal candle, and large capitulation last Monday are interesting considering how the broad market has timed this move with the kickoff to earnings season. Good levels when thinking about risk/reward.

SPX 5min Support Levels

There is a clear support level in the S&P 500 at 1262.50.  Will watch for a pullback in the index before taking new entries.  [click on the chart for a higher resolution image]

 

Wedge Pattern

This is an important pattern to master.  When this and accomodating indicators line up, there is a high probability chance of a breakout.  If you can find this pattern in the market when the underlying stock is a solid company then you will have a high success rate when your entries are disciplined and you exercise patience.

Here are some examples:

PBR

This is an example of a falling wedge pattern.  Typically these breakout at the halfway mark of the wedge pattern as indicated by the grey dotted price-level.

JPM

Here is another wedge pattern with a breakout from the 200 ema.

S

The two previous charts show how the wedge pattern plays out.  Sprint was an entry I made on Monday and will be in my portfolio until the pattern plays out to completion.  Will track Sprint as it breaks out.

UUP Entry Analysis

It is important to have confidence in your entries as predetermined from your risk tolerance.

Here is an example of a setup with multiple entries; as the setup progresses you develop your cost average.

5m SPX – 5 Day Trend Line Resistance (update 4)

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Emini After Hours Breakout

Looking forward to a pop in the market tomorrow.

5m SPX – 5 Day Trend Line Resistance (update 3)

The TL resistance turned into support on 11/18.  Today in the S&P we saw a breakdown below support levels lasting an hour.  We entered a few positions during this intraday period of market weakness and anticipate strength through the rest of the day.

Looking for a hedge in the SDS or another good spot to get in the VIX.

 

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