Friday Trades

Friday

IN
INTC – Added.
FMX – FEB-11 60

OUT
S: +.05
MU: +.09

Scalp
SDS: -.07

Portfolio

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Wedge Pattern

This is an important pattern to master.  When this and accomodating indicators line up, there is a high probability chance of a breakout.  If you can find this pattern in the market when the underlying stock is a solid company then you will have a high success rate when your entries are disciplined and you exercise patience.

Here are some examples:

PBR

This is an example of a falling wedge pattern.  Typically these breakout at the halfway mark of the wedge pattern as indicated by the grey dotted price-level.

JPM

Here is another wedge pattern with a breakout from the 200 ema.

S

The two previous charts show how the wedge pattern plays out.  Sprint was an entry I made on Monday and will be in my portfolio until the pattern plays out to completion.  Will track Sprint as it breaks out.

Monday Trades

Monday: When stocks run early intraday it is usually followed by a selloff. It is easy to miss the run and catch the top so it is better to wait for better entries.

IN
CTXS – Scalp attempt but cut losses at major selloff.
EK
EMC
ISRG
MU – Entered in morning as dictated in HPS watchlist.
S – Entered today on predicted move from HPS watchlist.

OUT
INTC – Relative weakness. SPX +14 while INTC -.11. Moving capital elsewhere. Will look to reenter in 2 days (2 day resolution).
CTXS – Took loss on scalp attempt. Will look to reenter in 2 days (2 day resolution).

Could not act fast enough on WLP.

Portfolio

High Probability Setups – Week of 1/3/11

INTC
Started position on 1/31/10 and am looking to add if there is no breakdown. The stochastics are turning up and the underlying has been resting on the upward TL for 6 days.  It’s holding the 50 ema with strength as well.

LLL
Will look for an entry when the stochastics pull back more.  Probably Wednesday.

MU
I am anticipating a continued move this week.  Looking to enter this in the morning on Monday.

S
This is a common breakout pattern called a falling wedge.  I have found that sometimes it takes a while to play out but when it does, the move can be explosive.

WLP
This is another stock that will have an entry midweek although a small scale in on Monday or Tuesday would be a good idea.

Monday Trades

MON [Force yourself to learn something new each day]

IN
UUP – Added to position.
LVS – Started position.
SHLD – Started position.
VIX – Added to position.
KMB – Extremely cheap premium. Good value. Good levels.

OUT
MU (ALL) – Took profit at target (200ema). [13 days]
S (ALL) – Took profit on nice move up to the (200ema). [19 days]
BUD (ALL) – Not interested in this setup anymore. Took loss. Moving on. [5 days]

Portfolio

High Probability Setups – Week of 11/29

High Probability Setups We Continue to Watch
SHLD – [chart]
RYL – [chart]
LLL – [chart]
PBR – [chart]
DE – [chart]

High Probability Setups We Have Entered
DO – Looking for a pop on multiple indicator setup. [chart] [trade1][trade2][trade3]
CME – Rising channel. Entered on support and cheap call premium. [chart] [trade1][trade2] [entry logic]
S – Support touched 3 times over 6 months. Entered on TL support. [chart] [trade1][trade2]
WFT – Short. Rising channel. Shorted at resistance. [chart] [trade1]

Wednesday Trades

WED (11/24)

Considering taking profits into continued strength on Friday.

OUT
LLL – Took profit into strength.

Holding
IEF (short)
MAR (short)
CME
DO
LMT
MU
OI
S

High Probability Setups – Week of 11/15

This is a weekly review of positions entered.  It is important to look back on the trades you’ve made especially if they are bad.  Here are 3 entries I am looking back on.

GOOD
DO [chart]
S [chart]

BAD
MAR

Thursday Trades

Thursday (11/18) [Don’t trade during lunch: 10-12PST]

Closing imbalances mixed.

Progress
CME – Holding [link to post].
OI (Long) – Holding.  Looking for breakout of falling wedge pattern.
MELI (Long) – Holding.  Breakout inevitable.
S (Long) – Holding.  Longer holding period on this stock.
MAR (Short) – Scaling out.  Cutting losses.
IEF (Neutral) – Holding. Looking to leg out of spread before a breakout in /ZN.

IN
SDS (IN) – Started position on market strength and follow through to upward TL.  Hedge against market weakness tomorrow.
VIX (IN) – 3 point drop today.  Picked up for value.  Also a hedge against market weakness tomorrow.
DO (IN) – Small scale into long position.

OUT
UUP (OUT) – Weakness in the $USD.
MAR (OUT 2/3) – Took losses on shorts into strength.  Don’t hold weakness.
OI (OUT 1/3) – Took profits at open on market gap up.

Watching
DO – Waiting for a slight pullback. Level of interest is 67.70.  Started small position.
OI – Mental stop set below 27 which indicates a pattern breakdown.

Wednesday Trades

WED (11/17) : [take profits into strength. don’t hold weakness]

3-year treasury yields open up 5 basis points higher than yesterday. All other treasury yields open lower.

CME showing great relative strength. While the market was in a consolidation it gained throughout the day.

Progress
IEF – Hedge had Delta (size) difference of less than 15%; nearly 1-1. The benefit of still holding the neutral hedge is that it reduces Theta (time decay) on the long PUTS to only 9% of their original value.  It’s held for free until there is a short term trend change downward in the 10-years.
S – Good volume on the DEC10 4 CALLS. Added to long.
OI – Good technical level. Added to long.
MAR – Added to short.
MELI – Looking good.
CME – Looking good.

Watching
DO – Possible entry soon (TA).
GLD, SLV – Lots of selling due to margin requirement increases. Look for oversold levels.
S, OI – Pattern breakdown would indicate an exit.

Out
SDS – Took profits on anticipated market strength.