Spread Adjustments 3/4 – 3/11

Thursday Position Strategy – 3/2/11

ICE trends with a high correlation to CME so it would likely be a good hedge for CME. Tomorrow I will continue to lighten up my hedges into profit and start to move into a more bullish position in CME. To hedge I’ll put on an ICE PUT spread and if there is no hedge then at least I can collect premium on the short PUT.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 
In the event of the last case I would buy back the short leg of the ICE PUT spread and further lighten up the hedge still on CME. I would continue to do this until I change my mind or I’m repeatedly proven wrong.

Weekly Results – 2/4/11

Friday Trades

IN
AMZN – APR 210 CALLS @ 1.05
DAL – MAR 11 PUTS @ 0.41
EXPE – APR 28 CALLS @ 0.40
GLD – MAR 135 CALLS @ 1.81
IEF – SEP 88 PUTS @ 1.75
PGshort APR 65 CALLS @ 0.85
PGbutterfly JUL 60/65/70 CALLS @ 1.81
SPY – FEB 129 PUTS @ 0.86

OUT (+0.892)
AMZN – MAR 145 PUTS @ 0.44 (-0.21)
FCX (covered short) – MAY 50 PUTS @ 2.30 (+0.33)
FRXvertical MAR 33/34 CALLS @ 0.45 (+0.25)
ICE – MAR 120 CALLS @ 3.90 (-0.385)
PG (part) – APR 62.5 CALLS @ 2.13 (+0.467)
ROVI (part) – MAR 65 CALLS @ 2.95 (+0.48)
SDS – MAR 23 CALLS @ 0.55 (-0.04)

Thursday Trades

IN
AMZN – APR 205 CALLS @ 1.05
AMZN – MAR 145 PUTS @ 0.65
CBOE – SEP 28 CALLS @ 0.80
PG – APR 62.5 CALLS @ 1.85
CBOEbutterfly MAR 22/24/26 @ 0.71
EXPE – APR 28 CALLS @ 0.50
FCXshort MAY 50 PUT @ 2.63
UUPshort SEP 24 CALLS @ 0.28

OUT (+2.667)
DBO – MAR 30 CALLS @ 0.60 (-0.15)
MCD (part) – MAR 75 CALLS @ 0.90 (+0.15)
ROVI (part) – MAR 65 CALLS @ 2.65 (+0.167)
ICE (covered short) – MAR 125 CALLS @ 2.15 (+0.28)
ICEvertical MAR 120/125 CALLS @ 1.82 (-0.086)

HEDGE
SDS – MAR 23 CALLS @ 0.59

OTHER
Reduced size of CME vertical and converted part to 300/310/320 butterfly then took part profit on 330 short leg of 320/330 vertical

CME (OUT part) – vertical MAR 320/330 CALLS @ 1.62 (-0.045)
1) CME (IN) – vertical MAR 300/310 CALLS @ 4.05
2) CME (IN) – short MAR 310 CALLS @ 6.20
3) CME (OUT covered part short) – MAR 330 CALLS @ 2.05 (+2.35)

orignal position: 320 + (320/330 vertical) = 2*+320 & -330
1: 300/310 vertical = +300 & -310
2: -310
3: +330

Two positions: 320/330 ratio vertical (net long) & 300/310/320 butterfly

Wednesday Trades

IN
AMZN – APR 205 CALLS @ 1.18
MCD – MAR 75 CALLS @ 0.75
PG – APR 62.5 CALLS @ 1.57
PG – APR 67.5 CALLS @ 0.17
OI – MAR 30 CALLS @ 0.95
VIX – APR4 18 CALLS @ 3.70
UUP – SEP 23 CALLS @ 0.51
ROVI –  Short MAR 70 CALLS @ 1.40
GLD (added) – MAR 129 PUTS @ 2.56

OUT
GLD – MAR 131 CALLS @ 2.423 (-0.180)
GLD (covered short) –  MAR 132 CALLS @ 2.00 (+0.129)
GLD – MAR 129 PUTS @ 2.46 (-0.215)
FRX (part) – MAR 33 CALLS @ 0.85 (+0.15)
ROVI (part) – MAR 65 CALLS @ 3.10 (+0.60)
ICE (part) – vertical MAR 120/125 CALLS @ 2.40 (+0.494)
UUP (rolled forward exp) – MAR 22 CALLS @ 0.41 (-0.235)
VIX (rolled forward exp) – FEB 20 CALLS @ 0.70 (-0.59)

Tuesday Trades

Scalp
GS: +0.11

IN
CMEShort MAR 330 CALLS @ 5.20 (hedge)
FRXShort MAR 34 CALLS @ 0.50 (hedge)
ROVIShort MAR 70 CALLS @ 1.15 (hedge)

OUT
FRX (1/3): MAR 33 CALLS +0.20
ICE (1/6): MAR 120 CALLS +1.414
VIX: FEB 17 PUTS +0.225

Monday Trades

IN
CME – Long vertical MAR 320/MAR 330 @ 6.25 & 3.55
DBO – Long ratio calendar strangle FEB 28 PUT/MAR 30 CALL @ 0.30 & 0.75
GLD – Long vertical MAR 131/MAR 132 @ 2.60 & 2.13; with downside PUT protection: MAR 129 @ 2.79
ICE – Ratio vertical MAR 120/MAR 125 @ 4.34 & 2.43
ROVI – Added MAR 65 CALLS @ 2.42
VIX – Long calendar strangle FEB 17 PUT/MAR 20 CALL @ 2.80

High Probability Setups – Week of 1/10/11

BBD
Buy trigger: 19.30
Tech: TL support.  Look for support at 200 ema and wait for stochastics to turn.
Timing: Mid-week.

CME
Buy trigger: 302
Tech: Strong channel and stochastics about to turn up.
Timing: Start entering on Tuesday.

ICE
Buy trigger: 111.50
Tech: Look for ICE to tag the 200 ema.
Timing: Mid-week.  Anticipating a bit more downside.

TUP
Buy trigger: 46.50
Tech: Watch for stochastics to turn up.
Timing: Mid-week.

WM
Buy trigger: 35
Tech: Waiting for oversold levels and TL retracement.
Timing: Later in the week.